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AI Wrote 741% More Code and Shipped Just 30% More, Says a 100,000-Developer Study

An NBER study of over 100,000 GitHub developers found AI agents lifted code volume by 180% and finished releases by only 30%, because humans still decide what ships.

Economists matched more than 100,000 GitHub developers with their real AI usage and tracked the work from keyboard to shipped product. Conversational assistants cranked out 741% more lines of code, yet finished releases rose only about 20% to 30%, because review, approval, and human judgment never sped up. The same paper checked four app marketplaces and found a flood of new apps with no rise in anyone actually using them, just a growing pile of software nobody downloads. The garbage fountain runs at full pressure, and the productivity revolution evaporates at the one step where a human still has to care. Quartz on the GitHub coding study

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